How AFC teams' Super Bowl odds have changed

How AFC teams’ Super Bowl odds have changed

It’s been a wild NFL offseason, and it’s not even over yet. We’ve seen quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan change teams. We’ve seen two of the league’s best receivers in Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams get moved. A vast majority of the new talent has landed in the AFC.

The NFL draft is now just three weeks away. There are still some good free agents available to be signed by teams. There are quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo still available via trade. However, a majority of the major player movement has already been completed. How has the betting market reacted to the wild offseason? Which teams in the AFC have seen their Super Bowl odds go up or down since the market opened in February?

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Opened: +750
Now: +650

The Buffalo Bills have seen their Super Bowl odds go up slightly. The team added Von Miller in free agency, but the reason for the movement might have more to do with the Kansas City Chiefs. Many viewed the Chiefs as Buffalo’s biggest competition in the AFC, and it’s fair to say Kansas City has gotten worse over the offseason.

Miami Dolphins

Opened: 50-to-1
Now: 30-to-1

It’s been a banner offseason for the Dolphins. It seems like most think favorably of the Mike McDaniel hire. From the player side of things, acquisitions like Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds and Terron Armstead give Tua Tagovailoa everything he needs to have success. Their Super Bowl prospects have improved greatly, but they’re still far from the cream of the crop.

New England Patriots

Opened: 22-to-1
Now: 35-to-1

While almost everyone else in the AFC has been extremely proactive in improving their team, the Patriots did almost nothing. The betting odds certainly reflect an offseason where the Patriots didn’t keep up with the teams around them. These odds would probably look a lot worse if Bill Belichick didn’t command such insane respect.

New York Jets

Opened: 150-to-1
Now: 150-to-1

The Jets actually have had a good offseason, and it only figures to get better with two top-10 picks in the draft. However, it’s very hard to envision a path for them in the loaded AFC. The 150-to-1 odds are harsh, but you can’t argue that they’re unfair.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns

Opened: 30-to-1
Now: 18-to-1

The Browns traded for Deshaun Watson and now have a premier quarterback to go along with what many already considered one of the most talented rosters in the league. The question is obviously how much Watson actually plays in 2022. Their Super Bowl odds have gone up significantly, but it’s probably worth waiting for more information before betting them.

Cincinnati Bengals

Opened: 12-to-1
Now: 20-to-1

Despite making the Super Bowl and then improving their biggest weakness by adding three new starters on the offensive line, Cincinnati’s Super Bowl odds have taken a hit over the course of the offseason. Their division is tough and the rest of the AFC is loaded with good-to-great teams. Some of the Bengals hype has died down now as we get further removed from their impressive run, but this team is still certainly in the mix.

Baltimore Ravens

Opened: 20-to-1
Now: 20-to-1

No movement for the Ravens this offseason in terms of the betting odds. They will compete for the AFC North and should certainly be in the mix in the AFC with hopefully a much healthier season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Opened: 40-to-1
Now: 66-to-1

The Steelers have seen their Super Bowl prospects take a hit this offseason. Mitch Trubisky is certainly a risky solution to their starting quarterback vacancy. As has been mentioned throughout the article, the AFC is no joke, and it’s hard to envision a Trubisky-led team hanging with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow and the expansive list of star AFC quarterbacks.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Opened: 25-to-1
Now: 25-to-1

Matt Ryan was brought in to fill the quarterback vacancy in Indianapolis, and while he might not be the sexiest quarterback move of the offseason, he’s solid. The Colts’ Super Bowl odds remained static throughout the offseason, but I think most expect a solid year from the team.

Tennessee Titans

Opened: 22-to-1
Now: 30-to-1

The Titans earned a bye as the No. 1 seed in the AFC in 2021, but it’ll be extremely surprising if they repeat that feat in 2022. The quarterbacks in the AFC keep getting better and better, making it harder to trust a team led by Ryan Tannehill. After their early playoff exit, it seems like the Titans’ perception keeps falling.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Opened: 100-to-1
Now: 100-to-1

Despite spending more money than any other team in free agency and having the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Jaguars odds have not moved during the offseason. That shows just how much work this team needs and how far away they are from the top teams in the AFC. Jacksonville is an extreme long shot at 100-to-1.

Houston Texans

Opened: 150-to-1
Now: 250-to-1

Entering the offseason, the Texans were tied for the worst Super Bowl odds in the league. After the offseason, they have that honor all to themselves.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

Opened: +750
Now: +900

Every other team in the AFC West made major moves to improve their roster, while the Chiefs traded away their most dangerous weapon in Tyreek Hill. It’s not surprising to see Kansas City’s Super Bowl odds go down. However, the Chiefs still have the second-best odds in the conference and the third best in the league.

Denver Broncos

Opened: 16-to-1
Now: 16-to-1

There was no movement in the odds for the Broncos, but that’s because everyone expected Denver to add a marquee quarterback. Many had them acquiring Aaron Rodgers, but the team went after Russell Wilson instead. Denver will certainly be improved in 2022.

Los Angeles Chargers

Opened: 25-to-1
Now: 16-to-1

The Chargers saw their Super Bowl odds improve over the course of the offseason. We had no questions about their offense with Justin Herbert. They focused on their defense and added JC Jackson, Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph-Day during the winter. Los Angeles figures to be very much in the picture come playoff time.

Las Vegas Raiders

Opened: 50-to-1
Now: 35-to-1

The Raiders made the playoffs in 2021, but still opened as a long shot to win the Super Bowl in 2022. The trade for Davante Adams helped improve their chances significantly, but they still have just 35-to-1 odds, which is last in their division and 11th in the conference. Multiple good teams will miss the playoffs in the AFC and it appears the oddsmakers think the Raiders might be one of them.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers are one of many NFL teams to see their Super Bowl odds move over the course of the offseason. (Photo by Steve Marcus / Getty Images)

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.