While we like the Mets to sweep the season-opening four-game series, we’re also backing the Nationals’ bats to find their footing – ultimately sending this game Over the 9-run total. We break it all down in our MLB betting picks and predictions below.
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will wrap up their season-opening four-game set on Sunday afternoon at Nationals Park.
The Mets will go for the series sweep in Washington after winning each of the first three matchups by at least four runs. New York starter Carlos Carrasco had his fair share of troubles in 2021, but so did Nationals starter Erick Fedde.
Can Washington salvage some pride in what’s already been a losing opening series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Nationals on Sunday, April 10.
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Mets vs Nationals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as the consensus favorites at -129, and have drifted to as high as -141 at some sportsbooks.
The opening total was listed at 10.0 runs, but Under bettors have hammered it down to 9.5 runs at the majority of sites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Nationals predictions
Picks made on 4/10/2022 at 10:00 am ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Nationals game info
• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Date: Sunday, April 10, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 pm ET
• TV: DREAMS, MEAT
Mets vs Nationals betting preview
Carlos Carrasco (2021: 1-5, 6.04 ERA): Carlos Carrasco’s first year as a Met was one to forget. “Cookie” will try to rediscover the form that saw him go 88-73 with a 3.77 ERA over 11 seasons in Cleveland.
Erick Fedde (2021: 7-9, 5.47 ERA): A minor injury in Spring Training resulted in Erick Fedde’s first start of 2022 being pushed back by a day. Fedde is fresh off his worst season since 2018 based on ERA, but his FIP last year was 4.66, suggesting he was a victim of some bad luck in 2021. He managed to raise his strikeout numbers and lower his walks per nine innings last year, but his home run rate is still an inflated 1.6 per nine innings.
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Mets: Edwin Diaz (Out), Jake Reed (Out).
Nationals: Ehire Adrianza (Out), Carter Kieboom (Out), Will Harris (Out), Seth Romero (Out), Mason Thompson (day-to-day).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nationals are 16-44 in their last 60 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals.
Mets vs Nationals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The Nationals were predicted by many to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season, and nothing they’ve done on the field so far has dispelled that notion.
Washington is hitting .161 as a team through their first three games of 2022 and suffered their first shutout on Saturday night. This is a perfect situation for Mets starter Carlos Carrasco to walk into as he tries to regain his confidence.
New York will be hoping for at least five innings from “Cookie” in this spot, as they’re currently without closer Edwin Diaz (bereavement) in the bullpen.
Trevor May or Seth Lugo – neither of whom worked on Saturday – could step into the closer’s role, if necessary. Drew Smith is likely to be avoided by manager Buck Showalter after working each of the last two nights.
Meanwhile, the Mets offense should take care of business against old friend Erick Fedde, who went 0-2 with a 5.18 ERA and .302 opponent batting average in 24 1-3 innings against the Amazins a season ago. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are a combined 11-for-24 (.458) all-time against the Las Vegas native.
Once Fedde departs, the Nats’ overtaxed and underwhelming bullpen will take over. This unit has authored a 4.30 ERA – 21st in the majors – with an MLB-leading 15 pitching changes.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-130 at Unibet)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Over / Under analysis
The Nationals offense has to wake up eventually, and this looks like a prime spot for them to do so. If the Mets keep hitting the way they have, the Over looks like a safe bet this Sunday.
Carrasco faced Washington once last year and gave up four earned runs in one-plus innings of work. That included a three-run bomb to the ever-dangerous Juan Soto. Carrasco also has subpar numbers against menacing slugger Nelson Cruz, who’s taken him deep four times in 30 prior at-bats.
The Nats pitching staff has been no match for the Mets offense so far this series, and Fedde will probably just throw gasoline on the fire. New York is hitting .318 as a team through three games, getting major contributions from McNeil (6-for-13) and Brandon Nimmo (4-for-9).
The wind will neither help nor hurt offense in this one, as it’s blowing left-to-right at 13 mph, but Under bettors have acted like the wind is blowing in. Over bettors should seek out a line of 9 runs and act accordingly.
Prediction: Over 9 (-120 at BetMGM)
Carrasco is a bit of a wild-card for the Mets but they should still be able to pull out the win and the series sweep on Sunday afternoon.
New York has by far the better offense right now, and the superior bullpen, even without Diaz. If Carrasco is able to produce a vintage effort in Nationals Park in this spot, that will be the icing on the cake.
It may be tempting to head to the runline with the Mets, as they’ve covered in each of their first three 2022 contests, but there’s plenty of value to be had in the moneyline here.
Pick: Mets moneyline (-130 at Unibet)
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