State of the Forces: Florida Panthers No. 1;  the 31st Canadian

State of the Forces: Florida Panthers No. 1; the 31st Canadian

SPECIAL COLLABORATION

The Florida Panthers are the first club to officially earn a playoff berth and also grab the No. 1 spot in the State Forces this week. Florida is just two points behind the Colorado Avalanche in the hunt for the Presidents’ Trophy and the two teams are tied in games played.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had a great week. They won each of their three games, scoring at least six goals in each one. Auston Matthews was also the first player to reach 50 goals this season. Additionally, the Leafs saw the return of Jack Campbell in goal, who stopped 29 of 32 shots he faced in a win over the Philadelphia Flyers. All of this allows Toronto to climb into the top-3 in the State of Forces, but keeping their place will not be easy. Toronto takes on Florida and Tampa Bay in a two-game, two-night road streak to begin a week where the team will play four games in six days, in four different cities.

A week without a win drops the Calgary Flames to seventh in the State Forces. Daryl Sutter’s men came close to doing much better, but they lost games by one goal against the Avalanche and the Los Angeles Kings. Andrew Mangiapane is currently going through an offensive drought. Since scoring his 30th goal, he has only one point, an assist, in eight games. He’s still getting good chances, as he ranks third in scoring chances for the Flames in those eight games, an encouraging number despite the recent lack of production. Calgary also ranks third in expected goal differential again this season, a great sign that last week’s setbacks aren’t a sign of things to come.

What a week for the Edmonton Oilers! They went 4-0-0 and saw Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl reach 100 points, the first two players to do so this season. Draisaitl also scored his 50th goal and is just one goal behind Matthews in the race for the Maurice-Richard Trophy. It’s not enough to move the Oilers into the top-10 in State Forces, but they’ve solidified their playoff spot. They are now three points ahead of Vegas for third place in the Pacific Division, with a game in hand over the Knights. Our model currently estimates their chances of qualifying for the spring tournament at 91.8%.

Then we have three Canadian clubs that occupy the 19th, 20th, and 21st ranks. The Winnipeg Jets continue to have a near-neutral goal differential (217 goals for, 219 goals against) and our model gives them just a 2.6% chance of making the playoffs. It’s a similar story for Vancouver, which only has a 1.2% chance of qualifying for the spring tournament according to our model. The Canucks have gone 6-5-4 since March 1, nowhere near enough to be competitive in the West. The Ottawa Senators, meanwhile, are already far from playoff contention in an Eastern Conference with a very definite top-8, but two 5-2 wins over the Red Wings see them climb to 21st. rank. Ottawa is a respectable 4-3-1 since Thomas Chabot was on the disabled list.

The CH started the week giving the Panthers a cold sweat, overcoming a 4-1 deficit before losing 7-4. He ended the week surprising the Lightning with a 5-4 shootout victory for a 1-2-0 record. Cole Caufield continues to shine under Martin St-Louis. He scored his 14th goal in 24 games since the coaching change against Tampa Bay. He is now tied for 11th in goals since Feb. 10 and has four more goals than Lucas Raymond, the second-best rookie since that date.

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +1.22 (1)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.91 (1)

  • Dot %


    .739 (2)

2. Colorado Avalanche

Last week: No. 2 | 49-14-6

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +1.03 (2)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.72 (4)

  • Dot %


    .754 (1)

5. Boston Bruins

Last week: No. 8 | 43-20-5

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.50 (10)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.52 (7)

  • Dot %


    .669 (7)

6. Minnesota Wild

Last week: No. 5 | 43-20-5

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.62 (8)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.24 (11)

  • Dot %


    .669 (8)

7. Calgary Flames

Last week: No. 1 | 40-19-9

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.97 (4)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.83 (3)

  • Dot %


    .654 (10)

10. St. Louis Blues

Last week: No. 15 | 38-20-10

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.66 (7)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.10 (14)

  • Dot %


    .632 (11)

11. New York Rangers

Last week: No. 10 | 44-20-6

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.40 (11)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.03 (16)

  • Dot %


    .671 (6)

11. Edmonton Oilers

Last week: No. 11 | 40-25-5

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.14 (14)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.40 (8)

  • Dot %


    .607 (13)

14. Los Angeles Kings

Last week: No. 13 | 38-23-10

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.04 (17)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.22 (12)

  • Dot %


    .606 (14)

15. Dallas Stars

Last week: No. 18 | 39-26-3

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.07 (20)

  • dif. Xgoals


    +.36 (9)

  • Dot %


    .596 (16)

16. New York Islanders

Last week: No. 19 | 32-27-9

  • Avg. dif. goals


    +.13 (16)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.18 (21)

  • Dot %


    .537 (19)

19. Winnipeg Jets

Last week: No. 16 | 33-27-10

  • Avg. dif. goals


    0 (18)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.02 (17)

  • Dot %


    .543 (18)

20. Vancouver Canucks

Last week: No. 20 | 32-28-10

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.06 (19)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.41 (25)

  • Dot %


    .529 (20)

21. Ottawa Senators

Last week: No. 28 | 25-37-6

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.57 (24)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.55 (26)

  • Dot %


    .412 (27)

22. San Jose Sharks

Last week: No. 21 | 29-31-8

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.54 (22)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.39 (24)

  • Dot %


    .485 (22)

23. Seattle Kraken

Last week: No. 25 | 22-41-6

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.88 (28)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.15 (19)

  • Dot %


    .362 (30)

24. Buffalo Sabers

Last week: No. 27 | 25-34-11

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.79 (26)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.73 (30)

  • Dot %


    .436 (25)

25. Anaheim Ducks

Last week: No. 26 | 28-31-12

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.42 (21)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.35 (23)

  • Dot %


    .479 (23)

26. New Jersey Devils

Last week: No. 24 | 24-39-6

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.64 (25)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.03 (18)

  • Dot %


    .391 (29)

27. Chicago Blackhawks

Last week: No. 23 | 24-35-11

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -.87 (27)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.17 (20)

  • Dot %


    .421 (26)

30. Detroit Red Wings

Last week: No. 30 | 26-34-9

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -1.04 (31)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -.62 (29)

  • Dot %


    .442 (24)

32. Arizona Coyotes

Last week: No. 32 | 22-42-5

  • Avg. dif. goals


    -1.01 (30)

  • dif. Xgoals


    -1.08 (32)

  • Dot %


    .355 (31)

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