Friday was another looooooong day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we again followed the Masters all day (along with day baseball) and then MLB, NBA and NHL well into the night. We also slipped in a Career Day for a local elementary school. Note: yes, I did talk about sports betting a little bit (these are Vegas kids, after all) but kept the conversation mostly to the writing aspects of being a sports betting writer and overall discussion of journalism / media as a career.
We had a mixed result with our Best Bet of the day as we went with the Tigers + 105 in the 1st 5 Innings vs. the White Sox, who led 3-0 after the first 5 innings to drop our record to 36-18-1 ATS (66.7 percent) with our top play of the day the past 55 days. We also bet the Tigers + 120 for the game and they ended rallying to win 5-4 with a walkoff single by Javier Baez in the bottom of the 9th (the play was originally ruled a fly out, but overturned when replay showed the ball hit the outfield wall before being bobbled and caught). We made the 1st 5 Inning bet our Best Bet because we believed that was the more likely result, but we also bet the game line because we hate to lose a 1st 5 bet only to have a team rally like this. It’s a terrible feeling to be cheering against the team you lost with in a 1st 5 Inning bet (hoping they don’t win and make you regret not playing the game line). In the long run, we think this approach will return betting results in 1st 5 Inning bets, so we bet more on those, but we’ll see how these fare in the long run. At least we won easily with Sabers-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 as the Sabers lead 3-1 at the end of the first period to also go Over 2 for those having to bet into a line like that. We also hit a small recommended NBA money-line parlay on the Raptors and Heat (paid around -110), so we hope these two plays helped followers at least break even on the day. Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s betting action and try for a better overall day on Saturday as we head into the rest of the busy weekend.
Masters: Scottie Sheffler took a record-tying 5-shot lead after Friday’s second round of the Masters. He’s the odds-on favorite (-105 at Circa Sports here in Vegas, -110 at Westgate) to win the tournament. No one else is under 10-1. Tiger Woods made the cut, also around even money after it was announced that he would play this week.
MLB: Faves went 9-3 Friday (11-8 so far in the young season, after going 2-5 on Thursday) with upsets by the Tigers (+ 124 in 5-4 win vs. White Sox), Mariners (+ 108 in 2 -1 win at Twins) and Astros (+ 110 in 13-6 win at Angels). Overs went 8-4 to improve to 10-8-1 after Unders went 4-2-1 on Thursday.
NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU Friday and 6-3 ATS as the Rockets (+ 11.5) covered in 117-115 loss at the Raptors. The upsets were by the Hornets (+ 2.5 in 133-117 win at Bulls) and Suns (+ 3 in 111-105 win at Jazz). Unders went 6-3.
NHL: Faves and dogs went 2-2 with the Blues-Wild game closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Islanders (+ 156 in 2-1 win at Hurricanes) and Bruins (+ 132 in 2-1 win at Lightning). The Panthers (-455 in 4-3 win vs. Sabers) and Avalanche (-180 in 5-4 win at Jets) won as favorites, but neither covered the -1.5 puck line as dogs went 5-0 on the 1.5 puck line . Over / Unders split 2-2-1 with the push in the Panthers’ 4-3 win vs. the Sabers with the game closing with a betting total of 7 goals.
Saturday Takes Angels (+ 100, even money, 1st 5 Innings) vs. Astros: We’re going back to the 1st 5 Inning approach with Noah Syndegaard making his Anaheim debut vs. Justin Verlander. Again, we’ll back it up with a smaller full-game bet on the Angels at around + 105. I also considered the Tigers again at + 130 vs. the White Sox, so I’ll also make a smaller wager on them. Another live dog could be the Rockies + 140 vs. the Dodgers. For chalk bettors, I’d consider the Cardinals -1.5 (+ 100, even money) vs. the Pirates, turning a fave into a short betting underdog. Depending on how you structure your bets, we’d need to just go 2-2 overall with these plays to show a profit on the day.
Devils-Stars 1P Over 1.5 -155 (DraftKings): We’re going to count on the Devils again as our top 1P over play of the day (beware, this game starts at 2:05 pm ET / 11: 05 am PT) as we’ll play it straight and also have some round -robin fun as several of our favorite 1P Over teams are also in action, also look at Panthers-Predators, Canadians-Maple Leafs, Blue Jackets-Red Wings and Avalanche-Oilers). We probably need to go 4-1 to make a profit with playing this many games, but we’ve done it before. Note: since these are juiced pretty high, you’d probably have to go 4-1 if playing all five straight anyway – or 3-1-1 if going Over 2. Good luck today (and every day!).